After arriving in JFK in the most predictable way (rain, snow, traffic or whatever) which is the combo E line + AirTrain, and boarding on a “last call” although I arrived early enough (due to the never-ending security lines, and the abnormal amount of passengers with special needs such as many small children in strollers, large hand-luggage, senior citizens, etc) I finally arrive at my seat on the flight New York – Rio de Janeiro, and I see it is occupied by… Rolls Royce car keys, with a Rolls Royce keyring.

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When a M. Phil. from Cambridge, A.B. from Harvard, and M.D. from UCal writes an article insisting on a probabilistic fallacy, a trap where, in one way or another, many have fallen (from Eccles to Nagel), and this article is echoed in many sites (such as BoingBoing) and an infographic is made and becomes staff pick at visual.ly… then you know ignorance is everywhere and very dangerous. Read the article, then read Roy Weatherford`s “Philosophical foundations of probability theory” (or maybe something simpler), and once you grasp the concept of “a priori theories of probability”, laugh at those who think each one of us is a miracle… we all are, but not because the probability of us being born is extremely small.

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Jorge Cortell

My blog in English

Senior Advisor, Health and Life Sciences at Harvard University Innovation Laboratories - Advisor at NLC

Cambridge, MA (USA)